The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published the latest figures on net migration to the UK for the year ending June 2024. These statistics reveal significant shifts in migration patterns, offering insights into policy impacts, demographic changes, and the broader political landscape.
Headline Numbers: Net Migration Declines by 20%
The data shows that net migration to the UK in the 12 months up to June 2024 was 728,000, a 20% decrease from the updated figure of 960,000 for the same period in 2023. The revised figures reflect the ONS’s access to additional data, enabling more accurate estimations of migration flows.
While the earlier estimate of 685,000 for 2023 suggested a decrease, subsequent revisions revealed the actual net migration figures were much higher, underscoring the complexity of tracking population movement in real time.
Shifting Sources of Migration
The latest statistics highlight a continuing trend: the majority of migrants now come from outside the European Union (EU). In the year to June 2024, 86 out of every 100 migrants were from non-EU countries. The top countries of origin included India, Nigeria, and Pakistan.
This starkly contrasts pre-2020 patterns, where EU migration played a more significant role in overall figures.
Primary Reasons for Migration
Two key factors continue to drive migration to the UK:
- Work Opportunities: Migration for employment remains a significant component, although policies introduced in early 2024 may have begun to impact this category.
- Education: Study-related migration has remained steady, although there has been a slight decline in the number of dependents accompanying students.
Policy Changes and Their Impact
The Conservative government, led by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, introduced measures in early 2024 aimed at curbing migration. These included:
- Restrictions on student dependents: Making it harder for students to bring family members to the UK.
- Higher earnings thresholds: Increasing the minimum salary requirement for work visas.
While the latest data shows a decline in migration, experts caution that the full effects of these policy changes may not be visible until the next set of figures, which will include data through the end of 2024.
Inclusion of Asylum Figures
The net migration data also accounts for asylum seekers, who made up approximately 8% of the total migration figure for 2024. This includes individuals arriving through small boats and those entering through other routes and claiming asylum.
Political Implications
The release of these figures coincides with a period of political transition. The data reflects migration trends during the final year of Conservative governance, just before Labour’s election victory in July 2024.
Labour Leader Keir Starmer has committed to reducing net migration but has not specified numerical targets. Meanwhile, newly elected Conservative leader Kaye Bock has publicly acknowledged her party’s past shortcomings on immigration, signalling a shift in strategy as they prepare for the next general election.
What’s Next and What’s Missing?
As the UK continues to adapt its immigration policies, the next release of migration data will provide a clearer picture of the long-term impact of recent policy changes. For now, the ONS figures highlight both progress and ongoing challenges in managing migration flows, a topic that remains at the forefront of political and public debate.
When examining legal and illegal migration, the UK government and police forces provide a range of statistics, but some types of data commonly reported in other Western countries are either absent or less granular in the UK’s reporting. Here’s an overview of the key gaps in UK reporting compared to other nations:
| What Data Does the UK Publish? | What Do Other Countries Publish? |
| The UK does not consistently track or report on the long-term integration outcomes of migrants, such as employment rates, education attainment, or housing stability. | Countries like Germany and the Netherlands often release data on how migrants, including refugees and asylum seekers, integrate into society over time. |
| The UK does not routinely publish official estimates of the total number of undocumented migrants. Occasional independent studies or think tanks provide estimates, but they lack the regular updates seen elsewhere. | Countries like the United States and Australia periodically release estimates of their undocumented populations based on census and administrative data, even acknowledging inherent uncertainties. |
| Limited data is available on the demographics of undocumented migrants, such as age, gender, country of origin, and reasons for becoming undocumented. | In the United States, for instance, the Department of Homeland Security publishes detailed demographic analyses of the undocumented population. |
| While the UK publishes figures on deportations and voluntary returns, they often lack clarity on breakdowns, such as the percentage of deportations due to criminal activity versus immigration violations. | Countries like Canada and the US offer more detailed breakdowns, including categories like criminal deportations, asylum-related removals, and overstays. |
| The UK provides limited data on visa overstays, often relying on estimates or highlighting specific visa categories. Regular, detailed overstay reports are not publicly available. | The US Department of Homeland Security publishes a comprehensive report on visa overstays, categorized by visa type and nationality, annually. |
| Data on immigration enforcement is relatively high-level, with minimal granularity regarding arrests, detentions, and specific operations targeting illegal migration. | Countries like Australia and the US frequently release detailed enforcement activity data, including breakdowns of workplace raids, detentions, and removals by region. |
| The UK does not routinely publish detailed economic analyses of the contributions of undocumented migrants to sectors like agriculture, construction, or domestic work. | Studies in the US and Canada often quantify the economic impact of undocumented workers, providing insight into their contributions to GDP and specific industries. |
| Migration statistics in the UK are often presented at a national level, with limited breakdowns by region or city. | Countries such as Germany and Australia frequently report migration data on a state or provincial level, offering greater insights into localized migration patterns. |
Why the Gaps?
- Data Collection Limitations: The UK may lack systems to reliably track certain metrics, such as visa overstays or undocumented populations.
- Policy Sensitivities: Migration is a politically charged topic, and governments may avoid publishing data that could fuel contentious debates.
- Focus Areas: The UK tends to prioritize certain metrics, like small boat crossings, over broader migration data due to media and political attention.
Addressing these gaps could enhance public understanding of migration trends, facilitate evidence-based policymaking, and align the UK with international reporting standards. Considering that misinformation is something that the Labour government seems to be very concerned about, you would think that prioritizing the collection and publishing of this data would be a priority of theirs.
The only way to combat misinformation is by publishing true information.
